Vancouver Real Estate September Sales Drop 41%- Negative Sentiment is Accelerating

The Saretsky Report for September 2018 available here:

The Vancouver real estate market is going through a psychological shift. Buyers are becoming more hesitant to pull the trigger in a belief that prices will drop in the months ahead. And those thoughts are certainly justified.

Vancouver detached sales once again trickled in at a 27 year low for the month. There is now 15 months of inventory for sale in the detached space. This has now spread to the condo market where sales fell 42% and inventory jumped 73%. Inventory is still low historically but it is climbing rather quickly. Further, there will be a record 2200 pre sale units released in October, a record high for the month.

From a Canadian economic perspective, the housing slowdown is now hitting the auto market, where car sales dropped 7%, the largest Y/Y decline since 2009. The Bank of Canada seems slated to raise rates again in October, while the 5 year Government bond hit a 7 year high this week.

19 thoughts on “Vancouver Real Estate September Sales Drop 41%- Negative Sentiment is Accelerating”

  1. years ago I had some apartments I was selling —the market jumped 50 thousand dollars —-every one told me to add to the price —I did not —sold within a week because my price was low —within a couple of weeks after that the sell the market crashed

  2. this happened in 2007 before the 2008 crash—-people would not buy, knowing housing prices were going down unless they go a great deal on a house —greatly discounted —real estate agents on the radio were encoraging people to do so

  3. Interestingly the building where I live at the New West Quay just sold the only two 1 bedroom condos above asking (over 500K and with multiple offers) and yet the 2 bedrooms are not selling. It looks like the new mortgage rules are affecting prospective buyers a lot.

  4. So market is down so who cares … markets will always have ups and downs, so now is a market down turn … just hold, live in it, and it will come up again as have done since the beginning of man started to record housing transactions. The stats/history will not lie but analysts may for their own agendas. Vancouver has the right fundamentals, no one can argue with this.

  5. Toronto really picking up! Once we got rid of our premier!! Toronto now back open for business
    Vancouver vote in right person ! Things will pick up

  6. Steve, thanks for the video. You mentioned higher month of inventory, but months of inventory was as high late 2016 and late 2017 (if I'm reading your graph right) and it went back down on both occasions. What is different this time? thks

  7. I could say do your homework but you won't. You will just run your mouth like every canadian pawn. The sheep wait for cbc command.

  8. You are supposed to celebrating with champagne shower all over BC.
    Instead of crying sadly like some SAD SACKS got poked in the butt.
    It's not this is what the BC housing market wanted after they got rid the offshore wealthy Chinese buyers??????????????????
    No more high price turn over towards that tax free retirement supplement for local BC? Be careful of what you wish for fools.

  9. Hey look the chinese money laundering operation is falling. Thank you trump. Vancouver the biggest fraud scheme in canadian history. The Quebec loophole still open.

  10. Steve, a parallel issue that you might want to do a report on one day is BC's residential tenancy laws. There should be dozens of red-flags for property investors within this law (and how it is applied). Examples? You cannot evict a tenant for the purpose of selling the property. You are required to sell the property with the tenant in place (and for the new owner to then go through an eviction process, if they chose). I tried selling several properties using this approach, and the tenants, of course, did everything they could to frustrate the sale (wouldn't agree to the viewing times requested by the buyers; left the pace untidy; would follow the viewers from room to room making comments). That is why property owners often end up selling their property to sitting tenants or buying them off in some way, as they have all the power. Another example: I rented out a house that was part of a condominium development. Result? The strata was fining me for the fact that the tenant wouldn't cut his lawn, let his dog run around the neighborhood etc and yet under the residential tenancy act i could take no action against the tenant. I ended up paying him to leave, so that i could stop getting fined! Of course, the biggest issue is the limitation on rent increase. In one year i had a 40% increase in property taxes; a 20% increase in building insurance; an increase in mortgage interest rate – while at the same time the residential tenancy act limited the rent increase i could apply to 2%. Worse, if you actually try appealing to one of their tribunals, be warned that their record is overwhelmingly in favor of the tenant. BC is simply not a prudent place to be a long term property investor.

  11. Bottom line:. The greed groupthink that got all of these people into this fiasco is the same thing that's going to keep them in it. And here they all thought they were financial geniuses…

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