To everyone wondering “When the Real Estate market will crash??” – my prediction

Two common questions I get: When will the real estate market drop in price, and should I wait for the market to drop before I buy? So this is my perspective from both a real estate agent and investor. Feel free to add me on Snapchat/Instagram: GPStephan

The way I see it:
People have too much equity in their homes to let them go into foreclosure. Banks are strict about who they’re lending to, and want people with higher down payments and strong income. In order to qualify, a buyer must pass a rigorous approval process reviewing their financials, income, credit score and history, assets, and debt. They do not let just anyone buy a home now. I don’t see anything that leads me to think we’re in a bubble.

In addition to this, we have low interest rates which are holding prices fairly steady. If this climb too fast, yes, it could have a short term impact on pricing – but there’s no way they’d raise interest rates that quickly to disrupt housing prices. It’ll be done slow and steady over many, many years.

Realistically, we’ll see many more homes in construction coming on that market. This will lead to an over supply of homes which means buyers will have more leverage and more to chose from. This won’t cause housing to crash, but it could take longer for a seller to sell a house because they’re facing more competition.

This, combined with slowly rising interest rates, I believe that housing is safe and won’t see any type of large price drop. Realistically, there won’t be any price drop, but we won’t be seeing huge appreciation like we were over the last 7 years – which is not sustainable to begin with. I think we’ll enter a period where normal, slow appreciation is the norm as more homes come on the market and interest rates slowly get higher. No reason to panic and nothing out of the ordinary.

*Just my pure opinion, of course. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions. This is only from my perspective.

Thanks so much for watching!

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Suggested reading:
The Millionaire Real Estate Agent:
Your money or your life:
The Millionaire Real Estate Investor:
How to Win Friends and Influence People:
Think and grow rich:
Awaken the giant within:
The Book on Rental Property Investing:

20 thoughts on “To everyone wondering “When the Real Estate market will crash??” – my prediction”

  1. Hey Graham, I have a quick question. I make around $80-100k a year with great benefits (5 weeks vacation, 5% company match tsp, great medical, dental, vision and most holidays off with pay). I have no debt and a nice saving. My question is how do I get myself to quit my job and pursue real estate full time?

  2. hey Graham?? is the price of housing being raised not a good thing(in cali) because that means that when someone does buy the house, cuz they have the money, then they keep or keep renting because its such a competitive market, letting the cash roll in for yourself??

  3. In San Diego County the contractors are buying land and building homes and commercial property everywhere. It doesn't matter where I go, there are always close lanes and construction crews. As of now most of the work is concentrated on filling in the empty areas in established cities, but I am sure that it will expand outwards into more underdeveloped areas. San Diego is really encouraging contractors to build more homes to meet the demands of people moving in from other areas. I am hoping that by the time there is an over supply of property, that the prices drop a little and I will have the funds to buy an investment property that I can rent out.

  4. No Realtor will ever tell you the Market is going to crash. His theory that people are putting 20 percent down and no one will let their houses go, or equity go is not correct. The market can't hold on to these prices any longer with out real lending available and the younger generations renting. Yes the folks that bought with 20 percent or more will most likely not default because they are real buyers, but no one is saying we are going to have another foreclosure crisis do due easy lending. We will have home prices come down and because Americans can't afford them. Something will give and prices will eventually adjust down. Its a cycle of ups and downs. It silly to think it always going to remain stable or rise and never go down.

  5. 60% of down payments are 6%, some are less or even 0%. That’s hardly a huge down payment. Look at the us housing market index. Not once in history has the market ever continued to go up. Don’t take advice from sales people. Real estate/mortgage salesmen will always say it’s the right time to buy.

  6. Historically there are corrections in the housing market every 10 years and they are typically around 50%. The housing market was flat almost throughout the whole 90s.

  7. Hey Graham, I currently make about 50k a year with about 2k to 3k raises each year. Im currently 24 years old and really want to own real estate before 30, especially around the culver city area close to where I work. With the current rising values in that area, however, I worry that by the time I am done saving up for a down payment, it will be too expensive to buy. I will be done paying off student loans by the end of this year and I am currently investing in Vanguard ETFs with about 7% returns and individual stocks in hopes to save and "grow" my money for a potential home. What is your advice for my situation? Thanks!

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